I shuffle a deck of cards and deal them one by one, as
slowly as you need me to. You observe the sequence of cards and at any point of
your choosing you say Stop. I then deal the next card: if it's black, you win.
If it's red, you lose. No jokers and no sleight-of-hand. If you fail to say
Stop until the very end, the last card determines the outcome of the game.
What's your strategy?
Students are quick to suggest many clever strategies, like counting reds and saying Stop as soon as at least 3 more reds than blacks were seen. The thing is, no strategy makes any difference whatsoever in this game - all strategies yield a winning probability of exactly 50%, and there's a simple reason for that.
What's your strategy?
Students are quick to suggest many clever strategies, like counting reds and saying Stop as soon as at least 3 more reds than blacks were seen. The thing is, no strategy makes any difference whatsoever in this game - all strategies yield a winning probability of exactly 50%, and there's a simple reason for that.
(Reason shall be posted on the next monthly digest)